Budgetary Forecasting Projections

© Monkey Business Images | Dreamstime.comWhere? Queensland Base, Managing International Departments

Who for? International Development Management Organisation

What we did:

This international firm was struggling to review and audit development projects that were run my multiple teams in multiple countries.  To understand the true current position of the operations, they needed to combine data from all these overseas and local projects in a coherent manner.

In this case we identified and developed a process flow and templates using common software (excel).  This allowed the central office managers to process the cashflow forecasts and use this information to generate business strategies and support for decision making.

Business Planning Risk Assessment/Modelling

© Onthewaybackhome | Dreamstime.comWhere? Victoria and NSW

Who for? Publicly listed mining firm

What we did:

This client needed to better streamline and optimise their operations across a number of smelting plants. Previously the sites had been managed quite separately, but this did not necessarily lead to the best overall business outcome.

We examined the data available from the different sites and constructed a combined risk analysis platform, which incorporated uncertainty, and correlations/connections between sites. This was used to examine a variety of strategic infrastructure and development options in light of possible market movements and comparing them to each other to decide the optimal strategic direction.

Complex, multilevel risk assessment (aircraft collision and wind farms)

© SymbolixWhere? South Australia

Who for? Wind Farm Developer

What we did:

This client was constructing a wind farm in an area with some local air traffic. At the time there was little official regulation for risk mitigation for areas away from airports. To compare very different options like lighting (which can also have negative impacts), or more general community engagement required a complex risk analysis.

This was also difficult because the understanding of the key drivers and mitigation options for collisions between aircraft and terrain in general airspace is hampered by a lack of data.

We combined data from a range of sources and developed a risk barrier model to assess the relative efficacy of a range of mitigation options. This provided a robust and quantitative assessment of specific options.© Lars Christensen | Dreamstime.com

We then assisted the client to incorporate this risk model into a broader, semi-quantitative risk assessment according to ISO standards (AS/NZ 4360). The robust nature of the assessment allowed the client to have confidence in their approach and to actively and successfully engage with industry regulators.

Data management and analysis services - environmental, business and resource data

 Where? Tasmania

Who for? Hydro Tasmania

What we did:

© Andrei Iancu | Dreamstime.comWe provide data management and analysis as-a-service to a number of clients on an ongoing basis. This includes environmental and business operational data. One example of this is the data we maintain, analyse and report on for Hydro Tasmania’s wind farm sites.

At first this involved reviewing the data to establish the benefits and options for using it to manage environment risk onsite (particularly to bird life) and to inform planning decisions. Our services have included the development of databases, channelling of over ten years of environmental survey data and 9 years wind resource data; data cleaning, analysing and reporting.

We have also designed new monitoring programs, ensuring consistency with data already collected. This includes liaising with third party data collection agencies, developing survey timing, metrics and protocols.

Data analysis is provided to the client on an ad hoc basis, for regular reporting cycles (e.g. annual reports) and for long-term reports and scientific papers. DTL | morguefile.

By outsourcing their data in this way, the quality of the data source has increased, the analysis and reporting output increased, and managers and ecologists have been able to concentrate on their own expertise, not data wrangling.

This data has contributed to a number of published papers and conference presentations, part of the client’s commitment to contributing to a wider understanding of environmental risk and management at Wind Farm sites. See references for links.

Disclosure control for census and survey data

© Kirill Makarov | Dreamstime.comWhere? International

Who for? Space-Time Research for a range of international statistics providers.

What we did:

We provide statistical analysis and disclosure control services to assist data providers to make their data available to the public in a safe and understandable way. We work a lot with Space-Time Research, who provide software to allow huge amounts of data to be accessed through database and online software.

Statistical disclosure controls are the techniques we use to reduce the possibility that individuals or businesses can be uniquely identified in published data sets. This is a critical to modern data dissemination to safely satisfy the demand for online access to public data. Data collectors and providers must undertake to protect the privacy of all respondents. In a web 2.0 world, this goes well beyond just removing names and credit card numbers from the database.

In this project, we reviewed a number of surveys, censuses and official registries of public and enterprise data, collected by a European Statistics Organisation. This collection of data is being prepared for online release, but requires careful data preparation to ensure that privacy is protected, but the data can still be accessed and used by the public.

To achieve this, we developed a risk profile for each data set, and the combined group. This allowed us to compare and evaluate a range of possible confidentialisation techniques in use around the world. The recommenations considered the likelihood and consequence of a breach, the utility of the final data set, the development time and whether each method could be applied in a web 2.0 setting.

Environmental impact assessment (before-after)

© Bambi L. Dingman | Dreamstime.comWhere?Tasmania, Victoria, NSW

Who for? Multiple, including mine operators, hydro projects, logging operators, transport infrastructure developers.

What we did:

Many large-scale developments (like mines, dams, road infrastructure etc.) must measure and report on ecological impacts after construction. These may require tracking of key ‘indicator species’ or system impacts like changes in the structure of vegetation communities. The tricky thing about environmental impacts is that they come in many shapes and sizes. They may be short-lived, or cause gradual declines over time.

Without careful planning and analysis, there is a chance of incorrectly interpreting changes as impacts (which can incur unnecessary compliance costs). There is also a very real chance of missing a real impact until it has progressed significantly (which can have huge environmental and business cost).

For these assessments, we designed surveys and metrics that would accurately capture the potential impact. © Symbolix

The data analysis was done through a hierarchy, which considered global down to more targeted changes (e.g. specific species). This stepwise analysis method results in a streamlined impact monitoring and a clear communication of the findings to assist decision makers to better assess the likelihood and consequence of an ecological impact.

Although the statistical tests and questions change, we recommend a hierarchical approach to identify trends and to assess change in social and business data also. That is, we would define global indicators (e.g. net income, manufacturing output, business resilience); we can then assess the value and trend in these indicators and finally use exploratory methods to query the data to assess what might be driving the change.

Framework for assessing and communicating decision support tools

© Shevchenkon | Dreamstime.comWhere? Australia - national

Who for? Land Water Australia

What we did:

This work was delivered in partnership with RMCG to provide a trial independent advisory service to assist regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies select decision making approaches, as part of the Land Water Australia “Knowledge for Regional NRM” program.

The purpose of the initiative was to advise and train Catchment Management Authorities on how to select and employ a variety of Decision Support tools.

When choosing a modelling platorm, or planning data collection, the specific needs of the end user are most important. That way, we can focus the selection on the benefits that best fit this bunch of real human beings. Essentially, we always work from the principle that “what’s best” is “what’s best for me and my business?

In delivering this work, we worked closely, as Decision Analysts, with the CMAs involved in the trial, using evidence-based management techniques to develop the question posed, to identify software and other options and to provide expositions of each option’s capabilities within the specific application’s context. Since this project, we have provided similar assistance at the State Government level, and for specific Catchement Management Authorities.

Indigenous Heritage Survey Design for Large Sites

© Krugloff | Dreamstime.comWhere? Tasmania

Who for? Developer - large utilities site

What we did:

Greenfield development must consider the potential for impact on indigenous heritage sites. The standard approach of surveying the bulk of the proposed site to form a risk assessment, and to identify any areas of significance is ok for small sites, but what if your site is tens of thousands of hectares? In Australia, it can be very difficult to survey large sites, so an alternative is required.

At this site (~50,000ha), we developed a robust and statistically sound methodology for assessing the potential impact of development on a region of possible indigenous heritage, whilst minimising both cost and invasive digging techniques. This is a staged approach, which can be adapted to assess

• the overall likelihood of a significant site being present (and the likelihood you might miss something),
• the likely density of sites and artefacts
• inform more targeted searches in areas of high likelihood
• incorporate specific site features, different areas, and local knowledge.

This method has application for any larger sites, whether they are mines, urban precincts or any large-scale infrastructure.

Making money out of waste management

© SymbolixWhere? Australia

Who for? Publicly listed mining firm

What we did:

Mining operations produce waste and businesses have regulatory obligations to manage this. This is often viewed as a strict liability, but this client wanted to explore options to improve the business (triple) bottom line.

We undertook an analysis, which considered a range of options for waste disposal, reprocessing and onselling and produced forecast scenarios to test the best approach to acheive positive cash flow. This took into acocunt local market conditions, and all scenarios maintained complete regualtory obligations.

The model scenarios took a 20 year strategic view, and were able to be updated, so that strategy and tactics could change as the external and internal business conditions changed.

Optimising product purchasing through short-baseline predictions

Where? Victoria

Who for? Cold logistics operator (milk and dairy delivery)

What we did:

When you are selling goods that have a used-by date, the holy grail is to buy enough stock for your customers with no excess. We can analyse patterns in sales and supply to predict the required number of inventory items at various times.

But what if you don’t have years and years of data? Even in this case, you can still use statistics and business sense to generate a meaningful safety margin. That was the case with this client, who was developing a new business stream and did not yet have years of data to rely on.

Our approach was to take the data they did have, and use business rules to simulate a longer data set.  We effectively added some statistical ‘wiggle’ to the observations, based on theory, to add a quantifiable, realistic and transparent safety margin.  This forecast gave the client a baseline indication, which can be improved by adding real world data as time goes on.

Spatial habitat assessment: where are the critters?

© SymbolixWhere? Tasmania, Victoria, NSW

Who for? Multiple, including Wind Farm Developers (bird & bats), Government departments.

What we did:

We have developed and applied a number of techniques for spatial habitat and site utilisation mapping. This information can be built up from field observation (using spatial density maps), or can be more predictive (i.e. we might build up a model to predict utilisation from habitat variables). Both methods have been used to allow developers and regulators to literally see and map areas of higher utilisation. Because these maps are fully GIS compliant, they can be directly included in constraint mapping for a site. Because they are underpinned with statistics, we can quantify and communicate the uncertainty and the precision of the maps.© Lee Torrens | Dreamstime.com

These methods can be applied to mapping flora, fauna, potential customers, traffic data etc. Some of the environmental applications we have provided are:

• For Bats - Using a predictive model (and a funky survey design), we could demonstrate higher and lower areas of activity
• For large birds - These are easier to see, so we have built maps of site usage based on direct observation.  This is then used to inform precise wind turbine placement to avoid areas of height risk. See references for a link to a conference poster outlining this approach.
• For reptiles -  These methods have been used to map the home range and travel habits of carpet pythons in North West Victoria
• Home range movements under specific conditions (e.g. breeding season) - A similar approach was used to determine home ranges for brolgas, during breeding season. This was then used as guidance to inform appropriate buffers, based on real site knowledge.

Technical Consultancy for National Wind Farm Development Guidelines

Where? Australia - national

Who for? Biosis Research / EPHC

What we did:

We worked with Biosis Research to develop Bird and Bat related sections for the EPHC National Wind Farm Development Guidelines. The guidelines use an environmental risk assessment framework to evaluate the risk and assess mitigation options.

We specifically provided advice and developed content to give guidance on the risk assessment process, and on specific techniques for quantifying collision risk and population impacts. We also provided guidance on desigining and undertaking post-construction monitoring to measure and manage impacts.

This work drew on our experience in risk assessment and monitoring design/analysis for proposed and operating wind farms throughout the development of the industry in Australia. We have provided this assistance to developers, operators and regulators across four states and this gave us the insight required to contribute to the national guidelines.

Turning climate data into agricultural business decisions

Where?Victoria (Wimmera Region)

Who for? Not-for-profit agricultural group

What we did:

Where?

Large scale climate models are all fine and good, but what does climate change mean for my farm and my community? For farmers, one of the specific questions regards long term patterns in rainfall, so that is where we focussed. We also find that community groups, like business can have data stored in all sorts of places.

In this case, we were fortunate enough to have access to a 150 years of daily rainfall records, taken at a broadacre farm in the region. After our data entry staff forgave us, we set to work looking at where the nuggets of information were in this time-series data.© Symbolix

We were able to tease out seasonal and long term patterns in the data and to link this back to global climate changes, using NOAA datasets. For this region we found that the major climate effect is a steady decline in summer (non-growing season) rainfall. This has the effect of lowering the overall resilience of the land, as there is less underground “backup” when the dry growing seasons strike. We were also able to show very real, local examples of the impact of climate events like el Nino/la Nina, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

This information was presented as a presentation and discussion with local farmers about how this information can be incorporated into farm risk planning.